Modelling the impact of testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second waves of COVID-19
Aleta, A., Martin-Corral, D., Pastore y Piontti, A., Ajelli, M., Litvinova, M., Chinazzi, M., Dean, N.E., Halloran, M.E., Longini, I.M., Merler, S., Pentland, A., Vespignani, A., Moro, E., & Moreno, Y. (2020). Nature Human Behaviour, 4(9), 964-971 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-0931-9
Abstract
While severe social-distancing measures have proven effective in slowing the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, second-wave scenarios are likely to emerge as restrictions are lifted. Here we integrate anonymized, geolocalized mobility data with census and demographic data to build a detailed agent-based model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission in the Boston metropolitan area. We find that a period of strict social distancing followed by a robust level of testing, contact-tracing and household quarantine could keep the disease within the capacity of the healthcare system while enabling the reopening of economic activities. Our results show that a response system based on enhanced testing and contact tracing can have a major role in relaxing social-distancing interventions in the absence of herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2.
Recommended citation: Aleta, A., Martin-Corral, D., Pastore y Piontti, A., Ajelli, M., Litvinova, M., Chinazzi, M., Dean, N.E., Halloran, M.E., Longini, I.M., Merler, S., Pentland, A., Vespignani, A., Moro, E., & Moreno, Y. (2020). "Modelling the impact of testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second waves of COVID-19". Nature Human Behaviour, 4(9), 964-971. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-020-0931-9